| Abstract |
Prior to the advent of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations, the modern synoptic analog approach was the primary method for examining synoptic paleoclimates of the last 21,000 years, assuming that extreme events in the modern were more frequent or persistent in the past. Scholars now widely acknowledge that no perfect analog exists, as a result of different surface conditions or climatic controls operating in the past, but modern synoptic analogs still provide useful information for explaining processes at smaller spatial scales (e.g., local or regional) and for particular climatic events that coupled GCMs and other modeling approaches cannot readily provide. This article discusses the literature, methodologies, and assumptions in using modern synoptic analogs for paleoclimatic interpretation at longer (late Quaternary) and shorter (last 1000 years) timescales. Methodologies used in climate analog studies parallel closely those used in synoptic climatology. Improvements in modern climate data availability through global and regional reanalysis products provide additional synoptic climate variables at improved spatial and temporal resolutions to support modern climate analog analyses of paleoclimate interpretations, even at the watershed scale. Reviews of literature indicate three major issues that should be taken into account when conducting an analog approach: (1) the spatial scale of circulation and the surface environment; (2) spatial coverage of modern and proxy data; and (3) the research design of the analog approach. |
, Cary J. Mock
