| Abstract |
How clouds respond to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. This uncertainty limits our ability to predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Here we use satellite observations to quantify relationships between sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds while carefully controlling for meteorology. We then combine the relationships with estimates of the change in sulfate concentration since about 1850 to constrain the associated radiative forcing. We estimate that the cloud-mediated radiative forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is −1.11 ± 0.43 W m-2 over the global ocean (95% confidence). This constraint implies that ECS is likely between 2.9 and 4.5 K (66% confidence). Our results indicate that aerosol forcing is less uncertain and ECS is probably larger than the ranges proposed by recent climate assessments. |
| Authors |
Casey J. Wall  , Joel R. Norris , Anna Possner , Daniel McCoy  , Isabel L. McCoy , Nicholas J. Lutsko
|
| Journal Info |
Not listed | EGU General Assembly 2023
|
| Publication Date |
5/15/2023 |
| ISSN |
Not listed |
Type |
article |
| Open Access |
closed
|
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1699 |
| Keywords |
Aerosol Formation (Score: 0.523962) , Atmospheric (Score: 0.512286) , Climate Forcing (Score: 0.500513)
|
