| Abstract |
We evaluate the expected impact of the International Maritime Organization’s 2023 regulatory regime (IMO2023) that caps CO2 emissions from global maritime shipping. Focusing on U.S. imports—for which we compile granular vessel, route, emission, and trade data— we structurally estimate a model featuring substitution between maritime and air transportation. We show that IMO2023 will cause substitution towards far more carbon-intensive air transportation to the point that, in the short run, total transportation-related CO2 emissions will increase! Furthermore, IMO2023 welfare gains from reduced long-run CO2 emissions will be reversed by lost consumer surplus. Finally, we analyze alternative, more efficient policies. |
| Authors |
Volodymyr Lugovskyy , Alexandre Skiba  , David Terner
|
| Journal Info |
RELX Group (Netherlands) | SSRN
|
| Publication Date |
5/11/2023 |
| ISSN |
1556-5068 |
Type |
article |
| Open Access |
closed
|
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4432161 |
| Keywords |
Shipping (Score: 0.541031) , Maritime Transportation (Score: 0.540202) , Emissions (Score: 0.533673) , Ship Propulsion (Score: 0.506714)
|
